Covid-19, weather issues, and labor shortages sent Australian thermal coal to its lowest levels on record during 2022. These disruptive factors have abated this year, and exports have subsequently recovered. Although these factors will not disappear, DBX estimates that mine expansions will further boost the country's output in 2024 and 2025. Three major mines have confirmed their expansion plans:

- Whitehaven will restart the Vickery mine, potentially producing 8 million metric tons per year.

- New Hope will proceed with the stage 3 extension for the New Acland mine, potentially producing 5 million metric tons per year.

- Adani will ramp up production at the Carmichael mine, aiming to ship 12 million metric tons per year.

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