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📉 Consistent with our previous bearish research note published last month, CIF China 62%FE iron ore prices have dropped by another $15 to $117 per ton. The combination of strong global supply and weak Chinese steel demand, particularly from the property sector, is leading to an oversupplied market and swelling stockpiles at Chinese ports. Our analytics suggest that the iron ore market will likely remain bearish in March.

For a full copy of our Global Iron Ore Fundamentals reports, please get in touch at info@drybulkx.com.

🇦🇺 Australian iron ore exports remain below last year's levels as a combination of weather events and strike action negatively impacts logistics. Exports dropped to 65mt in February, which is 10mt lower than the previous month and the lowest number since February 2022. DBX expects Australian iron ore exports to improve with the weather, but they should still remain below last year and the 5-year average. Flows should increase by 8mt and reach 73mt in March.

🚂 BHP's train service between the Port of Port Hedland and the major mining area Pilbara slowed down a bit as some trains were limited to speeds of 30 kms per hour for a week. Despite the start of industrial action, BHP's shipments have been performing the best out of all the Australian miners. BHP exported 21 mt in February, an all-time high for the month.

🌀 Tropical Cyclone Lincoln forced the ports to clear ships for a few days. Heavy rains and winds are slowing down logistics for all Australian miners. Rio Tinto was badly impacted by the weather and Tropical Cyclone Lincoln. Rio’s shipments dipped by over 5mt in February compared to the previous month, amounting to 21.3mt.
After losing over 4mt due to a train derailment, FMG is catching up and pushed its export flows up to 14mt in February.

🇧🇷 Brazilian iron ore exports continue their strong trend, reaching yet another monthly high. In February, exports reached 29mt, up by 1mt from last month and 6.4mt from the same month last year. Vale is making strong progress with its iron ore production capacity expansion. Other smaller mines such as CSN, Samarco, and Trafigura are also performing well.
DBX expects March export flows to further increase, reaching 31mt as the weather becomes drier and mines ramp up their capacity.

🇨🇳 Despite a slight improvement in rebar steel profit margins for Chinese steel mills and Chinese banks reducing mortgage rates to stimulate the property sector, sentiment in China remains negative, with lower physical bids for steel and iron ore.

❄️ Cold weather and high steel inventories have exacerbated the lackluster property market and declining demand for related steel. Despite a small month-on-month drop of 1.3mt in imports in February, reaching 98.9 mt, stockpiles surged to 135.8mt, up by 7.3mt compared to January. This trend aligns with weak domestic Chinese demand.

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