Impact of Baltimore Port Bridge Collapse on Coal Exports and Global Market Dynamics

A container ship collision with the Francis Scott Key Bridge in the port of Baltimore has resulted in its collapse, prompting a state of emergency and ongoing search efforts for survivors. The incident has halted coal exports from Baltimore's main terminals, Consol and CSX, affecting a significant portion of coal flows on the US East Coast. Despite representing a small fraction of global coal exports, the disruption is expected to have notable market effects, particularly in Asia where much of the exported coal is destined. India, Japan, and Korea are major importers impacted by the disruption, with estimates suggesting significant daily losses in coal shipments.

The exact impact and duration of the port closure are uncertain. Each day it remains closed, the market loses about 75kt of coal, including 25kt metallurgical and 50kt thermal (mainly high sulphur). With an estimated one-month closure, this could mean losing around 835kt of metallurgical and 1650kt of thermal coal. Rerouting coal to other terminals is expected to be challenging due to logistical constraints.

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