The increased utilization of the rail network for the transportation of military goods, along with sanctions that hinder the procurement of key components for mining equipment such as excavators and bulldozers has led to a significant decline in Russian coal exports. Russian miners are also grappling with FOB prices below $100 per ton, resulting in sales at a loss. This is further supported by stockpile data that indicates a substantial increase in inventories in Kuzbass. Additionally, Russia is contending with new weather hazards. A dam breach in Siberia resulted in water damage to parts of the Baikal-Amur Mainline, a significant freight rail line used to service Pacific markets. DBX anticipates that Russian coal exports will continue to decline in October and reach their lowest levels since February 2020.