Shifting Tides: The Dynamics of US Coal Exports in a Changing Global Market

A declining domestic demand for coal is driving more US coal overseas. DBX expects exports to account for 25% of total coal demand for US miners, up from 14% in 2019.

This trend is especially noticeable for metallurgical coal exports, which benefit from the underperformance of Australian mines. DBX forecasts US met coal flows to reach an all-time monthly high in February, surpassing 5 million metric tons.

Low Henry Hub natural gas prices, combined with the closure of US coal-fired power stations, should also push thermal coal exports higher. However, API2 prices near $90 per ton make exports unprofitable for many miners, forcing them to redirect the commodity towards Asia, resulting in significantly higher shipping costs.

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